Has India got what it needed?

It's a week now that Election results are out.That the results were surprsing will be an understatement.Here is what I analysed about the results.

WHY THE CONGRESS LED UPA WON :

1. A VERY SUPPORTIVE AND BENIGN MEDIA : Now I know this will will invite some comments but this is what anyone who closely watched the month long poll drama on TV,newprint will conclude.Just have a thought on this : Internal Security in complete doldrums,prices of essential food prices up by almost 42%, job losses all around.Given their proclivity for sensation and, hence, the emphasis on the inane and the trivial, they have tried to project these elections as one without any issue.This is truly shocking.Apart from these there are many other areas in which I feel government has not lived upto expectation.And leaving the first reason i.e the internal security , all other factors directly affect the 'AAM AADMI'.(Though internal security is one of the primary reason this govt should have been thrown out).If anyone had a chance to glance any of the English media channel, it appeared they are serving as a mouthpiece of the Congress party.NDTV,TIMES NOW and to an extent CNN IBN too, were just too busy castigating the 'communal' BJP and singing praises of Congress to dwell upon the shortcomings of the government.The same secular Congress has now asked from support from AUDF, as secular a party as Congress is.Now if anyone wants to know what is AUDF please google it.This party has taken the first successful step in making Assam a second 'Kashmir' for India.Now after the poll results so predictably NDTV has wriiten a 'Rahul Chalisa' with all it's anchors(Barkha Dutt leading the pack) beaming pleasant victorious smiles.



2. WELFARE SCHEMES HELPED IN RURAL AREAS : One area where the Manmohan Singh govt scored was the 'rural welfare'. Early analysis shows the loan waiver might have helped in garnering votes though some analysis shows it was not such a huge factor.Most badly affected area with maximun farmer suicides Vidharbha in Maharashtra didn't seem to like the loan waiver and Congress fared badly here.So it can't be validated that it was the deciding factor but nonetheless it was a factor.Rural employement scheme though really helped Congress in rural parts.This scheme was designed in way that help directly reached poor without much clauses.Same was not for loan waiver.There were many clauses to avail that and probably that was the reason it was not the deciding factor.But all in all Congress scored quite well in rural parts of India.



3. Minority votes consolidation helped : This is one of the most important reasons Congress did well in UP.The Muslim votes were consolidated towards Congress and the biggest loser in UP was SP on this count.Congress more than doubled it's seats in UP and minority appeasement (Sachar Commission,Quotas in various spherew) really helped Congress.Even in Orissa the analysis shows the Christian minority were quite sure in voting for the winning candidate except if itwas a BJP candidate.This wil pave way for more minority appeasement in coming years.



4. PM's CLEAN SQUEAKY IMAGE CLICKED WITH URBAN VOTERS : Mr.Manmohan Singh may not be a mass leader,but right from his days as FM in Narsimha Rao govt., he has upheld this image of a man of integrity, a rarity in Indian politics.He may not have done wonders to Indian economy in last 5 years but he had Left with him which didn't help in carrying reforms further.Also his stubborness in signing of Nuclear Deal helped him identify with Urban middle class as a man who means business.



5. A DIVIDED OPPOSITION : The main opposition party BJP was a largely divided house.There was a huge infighting which resulted in adverse results in Rajasthan,MP,Uttarakhand and to a certain extent in M.P..Certain states have alliances which indiretly helped Congress.In Maharashtra,Raj Thackeray led MNS ate up the vote share of BJP-SS and in Mumbai all seats went to Congress.In Tamilnadu,Vijayakanth led MDMK helped the UPA led coalition in the way that the opposition votes were divided between AIADMK and MDMK.So the rout which everyone was expecting in Tamilnadu never happened.Similar was the case in Andhra Pradesh where superstar Chiranjeevi though opened his account in politics but more so on behalf of opposition TDP rather than Congress.In all these states vote share of Congress led UPA has fallen compared to 2004 General Elections still it came up as the largest coalition due to division of votes.



6. OPPOSITION'S AGENDA WAS NOT COHERENT : If the media is to be blamed for not highlighting the shortcomings of the govt.,then I will blame the opposing parties too for not doing the same.BJP came up with Swiss money issue though I believe they should have focussed on prices of essential commodities.I mean what has the poor living in a remote village of UP,Bihar etc has to do with Swiss money.He won't identify with this.The opposition faltered in not raising Internal Security threat as an election issue.After 26/11 Delhi still voted for Sheila Dixit failing to identify with Terrorism as an issue(shocking isn't it) and that deterred any opposition part to base their attack on Congress on terrorism.

Now there is a lot which is to be discussed and argued but I want the readers too to take it further.

Please feel free to post your comments.

Love,

Saket.